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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 85

Los Angeles Rams 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(9:58) 42-E.Evans punts 38 yards to NYG 47, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 87-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.96 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 85, worth -4.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.85 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 43, worth -1.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model