Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 80

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Indianapolis Colts 20

(:46) 14-M.Araiza punts 69 yards to IND 11, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-22-J.Canady.

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.82 EP
64% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 80, worth -4.21 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model