4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 49

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(2:27) 67-L.Tenuta reported in as eligible. 28-J.Taylor left guard to KC 46 for 3 yards (95-C.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.40 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -3.07 EP
KICK -1.77 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.09 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.84 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 14, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model