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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 13 at the 43

Los Angeles Rams 21 – New York Giants 6

What Actually Happened

(:07) 42-E.Evans punts 38 yards to NYG 5, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 87-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.83 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 43, worth -2.13 EP
KICK -0.31 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model