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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 5

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(9:05) 39-C.Little 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +2.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.44 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 5, worth +0.07 EP
KICK +1.45 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP