Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 14 at the 69

Dallas Cowboys 17 – Washington Commanders 10

(5:13) 5-B.Anger punts 48 yards to WAS 21, Center-44-T.Sieg. 83-J.Lane to WAS 35 for 14 yards (89-B.Spann-Ford).

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.34 EP
66% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 69, worth -3.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model