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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 76

Denver Broncos 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(13:11) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 48 yards to JAX 28, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 11-P.Washington MUFFS catch, and recovers at JAX 28. 11-P.Washington to JAX 28 for no gain (34-J.Skinner).

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +2.23 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 76, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 34, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model