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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 14

Buffalo Bills 27 – Houston Texans 28

What Actually Happened

(10:36) 16-T.Bass 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.

The Three Options

GO +2.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.24 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 14, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 24, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP