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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 18 at the 52

Miami Dolphins 13 – Las Vegas Raiders 27

What Actually Happened

(10:30) 48-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to LV 12, Center-46-T.Addington, fair catch by 23-D.Laube.

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.64 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 52, worth -2.64 EP
KICK -1.18 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 15, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model