4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 69

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(12:11) 10-B.Mann punts 62 yards to WAS 7, Center-41-R.Underwood. 83-J.Lane to WAS 16 for 9 yards (80-D.Cooper).

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.94 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 69, worth -3.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 27, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model