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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 29

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(9:13) 39-C.Little 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +2.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.35 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 29, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +1.10 EP
What Happened
  • 83% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 39, worth -1.87 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.50 EP