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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 12 at the 46

Miami Dolphins 13 – Las Vegas Raiders 27

What Actually Happened

(4:04) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete short right to 21-K.Coleman.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.25 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 46, worth -1.86 EP
KICK -0.09 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.08 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 13, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.43 EP