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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 53

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Washington Commanders 9

What Actually Happened

(:45) 10-B.Mann punts 51 yards to WAS 2, Center-41-R.Underwood, downed by PHI-7-K.Ringo.

The Three Options

GO +0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.10 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 53, worth -2.31 EP
KICK -1.01 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.02 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 15, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP