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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 95

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Green Bay Packers 12

What Actually Happened

(6:08) 19-B.Thorson punts 43 yards to MIN 48, Center-42-A.DePaola. 23-S.Moore to MIN 36 for 12 yards (42-A.DePaola; 29-Jac.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -3.28 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.47 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 95, worth -5.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

PUNT -2.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 53, worth -2.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model