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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 44

Miami Dolphins 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(10:38) 48-B.Pinion punts 37 yards to LV 7, Center-46-T.Addington, fair catch by 23-D.Laube.

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.57 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 44, worth -2.66 EP
KICK -0.80 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.25 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model