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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 61

Jacksonville Jaguars 34 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(4:47) 9-L.Cooke punts 50 yards to CLE 11, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 12-D.Boston.

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.84 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 61, worth -3.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 20, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model