4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 22

Houston Texans 21 – Buffalo Bills 27

What Actually Happened

(:04) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 4-W.Marks right guard to BUF 19 for 3 yards (42-D.Williams; 90-D.Carter).

The Three Options

GO +2.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.51 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 22, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
  • 92% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 32, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model