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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Cleveland Browns
4th & 4 at the 16
Cleveland Browns 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 34
What Actually Happened
(8:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at JAX 22 for -6 yards (50-B.Combs).
The Three Options
GO
+1.29 EP
What Happened
-
38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.92 EP
- 62% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 16, worth -0.91 EP
KICK
+1.38 EP
Model's Pick
- 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
- 5% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT
-0.51 EP
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
