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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 22

Jacksonville Jaguars 31 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(1:52) 39-C.Little 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.13 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 22, worth -0.69 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 32, worth -1.38 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model