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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 29

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(10:26) 14-M.Gay 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.35 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 29, worth -1.29 EP
KICK +1.08 EP
What Happened
  • 84% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 39, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP