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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 94

Washington Commanders 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(7:42) 10-T.Way punts 54 yards to PHI 40, Center-69-T.Ott. 85-B.Covey to PHI 39 for -1 yards (18-T.Owens).

The Three Options

GO -3.48 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.19 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 94, worth -5.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

PUNT -3.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 52, worth -3.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model