Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 9 at the 67

Washington Commanders 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

(13:08) 10-T.Way punts 51 yards to PHI 16, Center-69-T.Ott. 85-B.Covey pushed ob at PHI 27 for 11 yards (58-J.Magee).

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.10 EP
63% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 67, worth -3.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model