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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 12 at the 78

Jacksonville Jaguars 24 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(1:45) 9-L.Cooke punts 58 yards to CLE 20, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 1-K.Concepcion to CLE 30 for 10 yards (46-R.Matiscik; 80-Q.Morris).

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.70 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 78, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 35, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model