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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 23

Miami Dolphins 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(4:12) 47-R.Patterson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-48-B.Pinion. ** Injury Update: MIA-46-T.Addington has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO +2.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.19 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 23, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 33, worth -1.59 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP