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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 34

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(4:29) 34-C.Heyward up the middle to MIA 34 for no gain (40-W.Gay; 23-Z.Anderson). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 34-C.Heyward up the middle to MIA 33 for 1 yard (10-J.Rodriguez; 3-C.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO +2.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.94 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 34, worth -1.31 EP
KICK +0.96 EP
  • 76% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 44, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model