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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 28

Buffalo Bills 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(7:32) 16-T.Bass 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.40 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 28, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +0.75 EP
What Happened
  • 85% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 38, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model