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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 66

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Washington Commanders 9

What Actually Happened

(13:00) 10-B.Mann punts 44 yards to WAS 22, Center-41-R.Underwood. 83-J.Lane to WAS 41 for 19 yards (54-J.Trotter).

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.18 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 66, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 24, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP