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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 50

Cleveland Browns 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 24

What Actually Happened

(4:02) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 37 yards to JAX 13, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.78 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 50, worth -2.77 EP
KICK -1.30 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.43 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.77 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model