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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 61

Houston Texans 14 – Buffalo Bills 17

What Actually Happened

(2:22) 38-K.Kroeger punts 57 yards to BUF 4, Center-40-A.Brinkman, downed by HOU-11-T.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.97 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 61, worth -3.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 20, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP