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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 8

Cleveland Browns 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 31

What Actually Happened

(8:34) 25-A.Szmyt 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.44 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 8, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP