4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 63

Houston Texans 21 – Buffalo Bills 27

What Actually Happened

(2:50) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 32-D.Montgomery right tackle to HOU 39 for 2 yards (47-C.Benford; 56-J.Solomon).

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.11 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 63, worth -3.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 21, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model