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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 53

Washington Commanders 9 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(11:20) 10-T.Way punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.75 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 53, worth -3.06 EP
KICK -1.78 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.48 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.87 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 15, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP