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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 76

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Washington Commanders 9

What Actually Happened

(9:55) 10-B.Mann punts 43 yards to WAS 33, Center-41-R.Underwood. 83-J.Lane to WAS 44 for 11 yards (42-S.Mondon; 28-W.Shipley).

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.66 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 76, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 34, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model