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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 62

Miami Dolphins 3 – Minnesota Vikings 12

What Actually Happened

(4:21) 48-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to MIN 14, Center-46-T.Addington. 4-M.Price pushed ob at MIN 26 for 12 yards (1-J.Tolbert).

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.09 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 62, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model