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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 48

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(13:00) 6-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-42-A.DePaola, Touchback. PENALTY on MIA-25-J.Wood, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.55 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 48, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -0.66 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 14, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model