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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 30

Minnesota Vikings 12 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(10:08) 33-A.Jones up the middle to MIA 27 for 3 yards (9-J.Uche; 20-J.Brooks).

The Three Options

GO +2.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.03 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30, worth -1.35 EP
KICK +1.02 EP
  • 82% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 40, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model