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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 12 at the 76

Minnesota Vikings 12 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 6-J.Hekker punts 31 yards to MIA 45, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.26 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.97 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 76, worth -4.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 34, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model