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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 12 at the 33

Houston Texans 7 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(1:53) 15-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.60 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 33, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +1.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 43, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model