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Dallas Cowboys

2-2 HC Brian Schottenheimer
@
HOU Home

Houston Texans

0-4 HC DeMeco Ryans
Sunday 2026-10-04 · 13:00 ET Reliant Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

DAL
39.5%
HOU
60.5%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • HOU defense: -0.144 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • DAL defense: +0.179 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • DAL offense: +0.081 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • QB edge to DAL: C.J. Stroud (HOU) -0.005 vs Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.199 EPA/dropback
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

DAL 22 15–29
–
HOU 23 16–30
Projected margin: HOU by 1 Projected total: 45

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 4

DAL

Cobie Durant CB Out Hamstring
DeMarvion Overshown LB Out Hamstring

HOU

M.J. Stewart S Out Knee
Azeez Al-Shaair LB Out Groin
Jadeveon Clowney DE Questionable Knee
Jake Hansen LB Questionable Calf
Logan Hall DE Questionable Knee
Ed Ingram G Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 34
–
HOU 30

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 19 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:06 TD HOU (10:06) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 0 – HOU 6
  • Q1 05:13 FG DAL (5:13) 17-B.Aubrey 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 3 – HOU 7
  • Q1 01:53 FG HOU (1:53) 15-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger. DAL 3 – HOU 10
  • Q2 12:34 FG DAL (12:34) 17-B.Aubrey 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 6 – HOU 10
  • Q2 02:08 FG HOU (2:08) 15-K.Fairbairn 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger. DAL 6 – HOU 13
  • Q2 00:02 FG HOU (:02) 15-K.Fairbairn 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger. DAL 6 – HOU 16
  • Q3 13:00 TD DAL (13:00) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 12 – HOU 16
  • Q3 10:57 TD HOU (10:57) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep right to 12-N.Collins for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DAL-27-R.Steward, Unnecessary Roughness, 8 yards, enforced between downs. DAL 13 – HOU 22
  • Q3 06:54 TD DAL (6:54) 33-J.Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. HOU-95-J.Crumedy was injured during the play. DAL 19 – HOU 23
  • Q4 11:20 TD DAL (11:20) 33-J.Williams right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 26 – HOU 23
  • Q4 02:26 TD HOU (2:26) (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks left tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 27 – HOU 29
  • Q4 00:43 TD DAL (:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 88-C.Lamb for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 33 – HOU 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 5 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 92%

    (5:13) 17-B.Aubrey 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 HOU 4th & 12 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 78%

    (1:53) 15-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DAL 4th & 5 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 79%

    (12:34) 17-B.Aubrey 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 HOU 4th & 5 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (10:30) 38-K.Kroeger punts 56 yards to DAL 15, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 31 for 16 yards (56-J.Hill).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DAL 4th & 16 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (8:23) 5-B.Anger punts 57 yards to HOU 17, Center-44-T.Sieg. 13-J.Noel to HOU 17 for no gain (11-A.Clark).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 HOU 4th & 7 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (7:22) 38-K.Kroeger punts 55 yards to DAL 25, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 36 for 11 yards (6-R.Blankenship; 56-J.Hill).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DAL 4th & 11 at the 44
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 53%

    (5:02) 17-B.Aubrey 62 yard field goal is BLOCKED (51-W.Anderson), Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 HOU 4th & 3 at the 20
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 93%

    (2:08) 15-K.Fairbairn 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DAL 4th & 16 at the 47
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 45%

    (:30) 17-B.Aubrey 65 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 72%

    (:02) 15-K.Fairbairn 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 HOU 4th & 8 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (5:12) 38-K.Kroeger punts 45 yards to DAL 13, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 9-K.Turpin ran ob at DAL 19 for 6 yards (8-C.Stover).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 HOU 4th & 14 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (8:51) 38-K.Kroeger punts 52 yards to DAL 17, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 9-K.Turpin pushed ob at DAL 31 for 14 yards (87-F.Moreau).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DAL 4th & 6 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (7:08) 5-B.Anger punts 60 yards to HOU 5, Center-44-T.Sieg. 13-J.Noel to HOU 13 for 8 yards (30-H.Luepke; 89-B.Spann-Ford).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DAL 4th & 4 at the 68 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (1:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 87-J.Ferguson to DAL 39 for 7 yards (2-C.Bullock).

    See the full breakdown →