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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 16 at the 74

Dallas Cowboys 6 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(8:23) 5-B.Anger punts 57 yards to HOU 17, Center-44-T.Sieg. 13-J.Noel to HOU 17 for no gain (11-A.Clark).

The Three Options

GO -2.67 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.78 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 74, worth -4.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 32, worth -1.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model