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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 20

Houston Texans 10 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(2:08) 15-K.Fairbairn 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.

The Three Options

GO +2.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.91 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 20, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP