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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 58

Houston Texans 23 – Dallas Cowboys 20

What Actually Happened

(5:12) 38-K.Kroeger punts 45 yards to DAL 13, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 9-K.Turpin ran ob at DAL 19 for 6 yards (8-C.Stover).

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.83 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 58, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 18, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model