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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 36

Houston Texans 13 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(:02) 15-K.Fairbairn 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.

The Three Options

GO +1.54 EP
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +2.22 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 36, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.95 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 46, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model