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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 80

Houston Texans 10 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(7:22) 38-K.Kroeger punts 55 yards to DAL 25, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 36 for 11 yards (6-R.Blankenship; 56-J.Hill).

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.69 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 80, worth -4.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.73 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 37, worth -1.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model