Win Probability
Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- Neutral site — no home-field edge
- WAS defense: +0.166 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
- IND offense: -0.053 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
- IND crossing 6 time zone(s)
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 4
IND
WAS
Pulled fresh for 2026 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 13:01 FG WAS (13:01) 19-D.Stevens 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. IND 0 – WAS 3
- Q1 06:24 FG WAS (6:24) 19-D.Stevens 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. IND 0 – WAS 6
- Q2 03:29 TD IND (3:29) 67-L.Tenuta reported in as eligible. 28-J.Taylor left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 6 – WAS 6
- Q2 00:03 FG IND (:03) 3-S.Shrader 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 10 – WAS 6
- Q3 12:48 TD IND (12:48) 28-J.Taylor right tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 16 – WAS 6
- Q3 10:47 TD WAS (10:47) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass deep left to 13-T.Burks for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 17 – WAS 12
- Q3 07:07 FG IND (7:07) 3-S.Shrader 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 20 – WAS 13
- Q4 11:44 TD IND (11:44) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 26 – WAS 13
- Q4 05:52 FG IND (5:52) 3-S.Shrader 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 30 – WAS 13
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 WAS 4th & 2 at the 13Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EPp(convert) 56% p(FG) 96%
(13:01) 19-D.Stevens 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 IND 4th & 3 at the 64Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EPp(convert) 56%
(10:50) 8-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to WAS 11, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 83-J.Lane to WAS 19 for 8 yards (58-A.Ajiake).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 WAS 4th & 11 at the 11Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%
(6:24) 19-D.Stevens 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 IND 4th & 8 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(5:31) 8-R.Sanchez punts 59 yards to WAS 17, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 83-J.Lane to WAS 31 for 14 yards (38-J.Owens). ** Injury Update: WAS-83-J.Lane has returned to the game. PENALTY on WAS-35-P.Butler, Illegal Blindside Block, 13 yards, enforced at WAS 26.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 WAS 4th & 2 at the 67Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EPp(convert) 63%
(2:43) 10-T.Way punts 49 yards to IND 18, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 IND 4th & 1 at the 63Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EPp(convert) 73%
(:27) 8-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to WAS 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 83-J.Lane.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 WAS 4th & 8 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(12:45) 10-T.Way punts 34 yards to IND 39, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by WAS-32-C.Reynolds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 52Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72% p(FG) 27%
(10:35) 67-L.Tenuta reported in as eligible. 20-S.McGowan left guard to WAS 44 for 8 yards (2-A.Robertson; 45-K.Chaisson). WAS-2-A.Robertson was injured during the play.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 WAS 4th & 1 at the 54Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72%
(8:34) 32-C.Reynolds up the middle to WAS 46 for no gain (94-J.Tillery; 57-J.Carlies).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 WAS 4th & 6 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(1:16) 10-T.Way punts 37 yards to IND 19, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 IND 4th & 6 at the 30Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 80%
(:03) 3-S.Shrader 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 IND 4th & 2 at the 34Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EPp(convert) 59% p(FG) 72%
(7:07) 3-S.Shrader 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 WAS 4th & 18 at the 44Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 47%
(4:57) 10-T.Way punts 33 yards to IND 11, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 6-A.Gould. PENALTY on WAS-56-K.Medrano, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 11.
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Q3 IND 4th & 11 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(3:19) 8-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to WAS 14, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 14-A.Williams.
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Q3 WAS 4th & 8 at the 84Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(1:43) 10-T.Way punts 36 yards to IND 48, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.
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Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 54Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72%
(8:19) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass incomplete short right to 22-J.Croskey-Merritt [97-L.Latu].
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Q4 IND 4th & 1 at the 26Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EPp(convert) 69% p(FG) 86%
(5:52) 3-S.Shrader 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 WAS 4th & 2 at the 40 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 60% p(FG) 57%
(3:25) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass short right to 6-D.Brown to IND 32 for 8 yards (7-C.Ward).
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Q4 WAS 4th & 14 at the 36 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.69 EPp(convert) 28% p(FG) 68%
(1:53) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass incomplete deep right to 13-T.Burks (7-C.Ward).
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