Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 76

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Washington Commanders 6

What Actually Happened

(5:31) 8-R.Sanchez punts 59 yards to WAS 17, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 83-J.Lane to WAS 31 for 14 yards (38-J.Owens). ** Injury Update: WAS-83-J.Lane has returned to the game. PENALTY on WAS-35-P.Butler, Illegal Blindside Block, 13 yards, enforced at WAS 26.

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.05 EP
59% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 76, worth -4.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model