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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 18 at the 44

Washington Commanders 13 – Indianapolis Colts 20

What Actually Happened

(4:57) 10-T.Way punts 33 yards to IND 11, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 6-A.Gould. PENALTY on WAS-56-K.Medrano, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 11.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.43 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 44, worth -2.19 EP
KICK -0.60 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model