Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 11 at the 67

Indianapolis Colts 20 – Washington Commanders 13

(3:19) 8-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to WAS 14, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 14-A.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.21 EP
65% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 67, worth -3.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model