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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 64

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(10:50) 8-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to WAS 11, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 83-J.Lane to WAS 19 for 8 yards (58-A.Ajiake).

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.68 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 64, worth -3.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 22, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP