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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 54

Washington Commanders 13 – Indianapolis Colts 27

What Actually Happened

(8:19) (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass incomplete short right to 22-J.Croskey-Merritt [97-L.Latu].

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.37 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 54, worth -2.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 16, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model